Trading

Tell me if I’m starting to sound like a broken record here but here is what I wrote on July 4th and the markets continue to play out to the tee. “The path of least resistance remains higher however we are very extended at this juncture so a quick pullback would be in order in the very short term. That being said nothing has changed fundamentally with the current market narrative so even in the event of a pullback I’d expect buyers to once again step up to absorb the selling.” If you haven’t been paying attention then here’s the […]

In last week’s video, I stated – “The path of least resistance remains higher however we are very extended at this juncture so a quick pullback would be in order in the very short term. That being said nothing has changed fundamentally with the current market narrative so even in the event of a pullback I’d expect buyers to once again step up to absorb the selling.” This past week this scenario pretty much played out to the tee as markets continued their grind higher at the beginning of the week only to pull back sharply mid-week and then see […]

“Eventually, the bull party will end but until then you have to dance.” That’s a quote from last week’s video and this past week the US equities party showed no signs of slowing down as the SPY and QQQ’s logged fresh all-time highs just in time for the July 4th festivities. In the meanwhile, the negative divergence between the SPY and its components that I’ve been detailing here got more headlines as the mainstream media has picked up on the divergence and started running about the potential doom and gloom. So where do we go from here? The path of […]

Last week I discussed how the US indices were stretched to the downside and sure enough this week the buyers stepped up pushing the SPY and QQQ’s back to their all-time highs. Congrats once again SPY and QQQ hodlers! Eventually, the bull party will end but until then you have to dance. All the taper talk from the Fed appears to be in the rearview mirror now and this past week we saw several Fed heads talkback their previous week’s hawkish comments. With fresh all-time highs, you would now think that all is now rosy and blue skies however we […]

Last week I wrote that the “DXY – is the one head asset that is offering divergent price action. Watch to see how it breaks this past week’s range.” That phrase turned out to be quite prescient as the US $ led sell-off took commodities and the equities lower and may have marked the change in narrative from inflation back to deflation. Interestingly the long bond (TLT) continued its march higher even after the Fed signaled on Wednesday that they may be looking to taper sooner than expected with perhaps 2 rate highs next year. Remember the old adage that […]

  This past week the North American equities markets continued their grind higher as volatility continued to seep out of the markets bringing us right back to the volatility regime we had prior to the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. We’re still a full week out before the official start of summer but with the low volume and volatility it certainly reminds me of the famous adage, “” Never short a dull tape”. The crypto market broke to the downside after two weeks of consolidation however the trade quickly got crowded and if this week’s lows hold we may have […]

  On Tuesday, the opening day of both the trading week and month for US indices was met with a flurry of sellers who tried to wrest control from buyers. By Friday though, it seemed like determined investors were back in action as the SPY reached new highs showing once again that there were determined buyers who were willing to buy the dip when necessary. The markets are staying strong, which is great news for investors. The good ole’ “bad news = good market” narrative continues to play out and so long as there’s no talk of the Fed taper […]

    This past week the crypto markets took a bit of a breather and the equities markets continued to grind higher on some very lackluster trading. The month of May is pretty much in the books and the first trading week of a new month can often have some note-worthy moves as traders and investors jockey for positioning. Here are some of the ideas in this week’s video: A breakdown of the VXX and VIX futures to see we go from here A rundown of the major indices and why it looks like we’ll get back to ATH’s Why […]

    This past week the crypto markets carried the headlines as crypto prices plunged signaling the potential end of the crypto bull run. In last week’s Market Watch I noted that “Bitcoin and Ethereum were at a critical level for the bulls to defend otherwise risk a sharper pullback”. Did I think we’d see a 50% pullback? TBH no, but I did understand the possibility of such an event. If you haven’t yet I would recommend watching my video where I examine the price action of history’s major market reversals and the one thing they all share in common: […]

  Over the past several months inflation fears have been creeping into the markets and this past week we saw a high print in both the CPI and PPI finally giving the markets the data point that all of us have suspected. The inflation is real – things are getting more expensive. Outwardly the Fed continues to talk down the inflation readings labeling them transitory however one must wonder at what point does transitory become reality and the fed is forced to taper their monetary policy. All of this played into further weakness in interest rate sensitive assets, ie. high […]