Trading

June 4, 2019
Trend change?

Trend change?

As I outlined in the Weekly Market Outlook video, the new week and month have brought some respite from the onslaught of selling we had in NA indices in May. In order to see a real bottom formed, we want to see last week’s highs taken out which is still some distance away. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is the exact opposite.We had strong buying right into the end of May and now with the new month, the effervescence has somewhat faded as last week’s lows have been violated and now Bitcoin is seeing the first test of its uptrend […]
June 1, 2019

Weekly Market Outlook For June 3 – 7, 2019

Here’s your weekly market analysis video to prepare for the coming week. As we noted in last week’s video, with all the timescales aligned to the downside we can expect any surprises to likely be nasty ones. This week continued and new tariff talks pushed the markets lower triggering some our setups and hitting some of our targets. June the 3rd marks a new week and new month so buyers will have the opportunity to try to wrest control from the sellers. If buyers fail to hold control then watch out – especially if sellers can once again align all […]
May 30, 2019
Fool me once, shame on you; Fool me twice, shame on me.

Fool me once, shame on you; Fool me twice, shame on me.

Markets continue to do what they do best and that is fool most people most of the time. Tuesday’s AM rally quickly fizzled out and turned into a rout in the afternoon. Can you spot the inside bar reversal on the 4H chart? This morning we gapped up only to give back all of those gains. Can you spot the inside bar reversal? Now we’re setting up for a gap down tomorrow on Trump’s plan to tariff Mexico and you can expect that anyone who got long today will be on the pain-train. Spot the pattern? Fool me once, shame […]
May 27, 2019

An Examination Of Major Market Reversals

At this past week’s Meetup, I shared my findings around a research project of mine where I examined some of history’s major market reversals.  As the saying goes, history doesn’t repeat itself but it does rhyme. Based on the research I carried out across 5 major bear markets although each market has its own distinct circumstances they also shared some common important lessons and takeaways. I’ve received a lot of feedback about the perfect timing of the presentation so decided to share the presentation with all of our members and readers.
May 25, 2019

Weekly Market Outlook For May 27 – 31, 2019

Here’s your weekly market analysis video to prepare for the coming week. The markets saw some heavy selling this past week where we saw a lot of volatility in the after-hours/pre-markets which led to a week full of gaps and a sharp sell-off in oil punctuating the downward price action. Note all the NA indices are both now below their quarterly opens and set up the potential for more selling. Shortened holiday week due to Memorial Day but trade talks, earnings, and a potential tech war will be the focus for the coming week. In this week’s video, we look […]
May 19, 2019

Weekly Market Outlook For May 20 – 24, 2019

Here’s your weekly market analysis video to prepare for the coming week. The markets continued to be buttressed by headlines this week as the NA indices closed the week green however IWM and DIA are both now trading below their quarterly opens and set up the potential for more selling. Trade talks, the FOMC meeting, and earnings will be the focus for the coming week. In this week’s video, we look at the technical outlook for the VXXB SPY QQQ IWM DIA TLT BTCUSD TOTAL UKOIL EEM PLAY CBOE GDDY MU AMD DE and a review of the sectors for […]
May 17, 2019
Stop putting your stops here

Stop putting your stops here

This past Wednesday I did an Open Office Hours session on YouTube Live and one of the topics I spoke about was the nature of outside bars and why setting your stop at the highs or lows of outside bars is such a terrible idea. You can find countless examples across all timeframes but here’s a good example that played out on the 4H chart on TIF. Today TIF goes inside bar reversal and down taking out all the outside bar lows. If you’re setting your stops under/above outside bars do yourself a favor and watch this past week’s video. […]
May 16, 2019

Open Office Hours Recording

Last night I held an impromptu Open Office Hours session on Youtube Live where I took live questions, reviewed some common questions I get from the blog and videos, discussed the recent crypto trades, and shared a part of my nightly review process. Thanks to all who saw the late email and showed up. In case you missed it here’s the recording. I’m going to start holding Open Office Hours more regularly so stay tuned. Oh yeah, next time I promise I’ll give a little more of a heads up. 😉
May 15, 2019
Are You Enjoying The Trade War?

Are You Enjoying The Trade War?

The markets have had a tumultuous few days with investors and traders transfixed to each headline coming out of China and the White House. Even the recent rise in cryptos have been attributed to Chinese traders rushing to get their Yuans denominated into BTC. Riddle me this geniuses – Bitcoin was trading at $4210 just over 2 months ago when we first recommended buying it, why weren’t those same Chinese traders buying it then for a ~$4000 premium? The reason is that at this point in the Bitcoin cycle, it’s simply trend/herd following and momentum strategies getting into the crypto […]
May 13, 2019

Short With Impunity

In case you missed it, the day started off bad and only got worst for the bulls. This was the worst case scenario as the gap down on the indices this morning not only trapped all of the longs who bought Friday’s rally but also handily turned the quarterly charts red on all the indices. This means all the indices are now trading below their 3-month opens and we have full-time frame alignment on all the major timeframes to the downside. So long as price remains in this condition the bias needs to be short and any rips should be […]
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