The Trading Edge http://thetradingedge.org Exploring Markets and Trading Performance Sat, 15 Jun 2019 23:55:43 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=5.2.1 https://i1.wp.com/thetradingedge.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/cropped-THE_TRADINGE_EDGE.png?fit=32%2C32&ssl=1 The Trading Edge http://thetradingedge.org 32 32 65286121 Weekly Market Outlook For June 17 – 21, 2019 http://thetradingedge.org/weekly-market-outlook-for-june-17-21-2019/ http://thetradingedge.org/weekly-market-outlook-for-june-17-21-2019/#disqus_thread Sat, 15 Jun 2019 23:55:35 +0000 http://thetradingedge.org/?p=3998 […]]]>

A quiet week for the North American equities markets with most of the major indices logging small gains.

Gold has been back in play due to the geopolitical risk but one can’t help but be underwhelmed by returns especially when compared with digital gold – Bitcoin.

The gold miners, however, look a lot more interesting and GDX deserves a place back on your watchlist.

In this week’s video, we look at the technical outlook for the VXXB SPY QQQ IWM DIA TLT GLD USDCAD GDX BTCUSD TOTAL UKOIL EEM XOP NFLX TWTR PFE MRK BAX XLV XLU XLP WMT and PG for the week of June 17 – 21, 2019 and examine where we go from here.



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Montreal Traders June Meetup: Trading the Market Micro-Structure http://thetradingedge.org/montreal-traders-june-meetup-trading-the-market-micro-structure/ http://thetradingedge.org/montreal-traders-june-meetup-trading-the-market-micro-structure/#disqus_thread Wed, 12 Jun 2019 01:52:32 +0000 http://thetradingedge.org/?p=3994 […]]]>

With the recent bump in market volatility having a good understanding of market structure and order execution is more important than ever.

In this month’s Meetup, we will look into when, why and how you might want to worry about the bid/ask spread, the order book, and all of the related market micro-structure details. How can we trade to minimize the cost of (or even profit from) a significant spread? We will address a wide range of topics such as dark vs lit order books, the advantages and disadvantages of different exchanges, shaving tactics, pairs trading, etc.

As always there will be plenty of time to grab a bite to eat and drink and to learn and socialize with other traders.

Look forward to seeing you on June 26th at this month’s Meetup!

Agenda – Wednesday, June 26 –

• 700-715PM: Meet and Greet
• 715-845PM: Presentation: Trading the Market Micro-Structure
• 900PM: Off-Premises: Moxies Grillades Bar: Open Discussion and Social

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Presenter Bio:

Simon Ouellette is a quantitative trader, currently spearheading the AI trading initiative at Pointus Partners. Starting his career as a computer scientist about 15 years ago, he increasingly gravitated towards data science-related roles, culminating in his current position. He also creates content about topics such as stochastic modeling, reinforcement learning, and quantitative trading via his blog at http://www.simonouellette.com/.

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Weekly Market Outlook For June 10 – 14, 2019 http://thetradingedge.org/weekly-market-outlook-for-june-10-14-2019/ http://thetradingedge.org/weekly-market-outlook-for-june-10-14-2019/#disqus_thread Sun, 09 Jun 2019 19:14:21 +0000 http://thetradingedge.org/?p=3985 […]]]>

What a difference one week can make.

In last week’s video, we noted that with the new week and new month buyers had the opportunity to wrest control from the sellers and boy did they ever.

Markets reversed on Tuesday and we saw major short covering for the rest of the week.

If you’re a student of price and time then you had to appreciate what transpired.

In this week’s video, we look at the technical outlook for the VXXB SPY QQQ IWM DIA TLT BTCUSD TOTAL UKOIL EEM XOP MSFT AAPL MRK BAX XLV XLU XLP XLB and XLF for the week of June 10 – 14, 2019 and examine where we go from here.



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June 7, 2019 – Open Office Hours Recording http://thetradingedge.org/june-7-2019-open-office-hours-recording/ http://thetradingedge.org/june-7-2019-open-office-hours-recording/#disqus_thread Fri, 07 Jun 2019 17:30:02 +0000 http://thetradingedge.org/?p=3981

Thanks to all who joined last night’s Open Office Hours YouTube Live session.

In case you missed it you can find the recording below.

We spent a good portion of the session deep diving into this week’s market reversal which coincided perfectly with the start of the new week and month.

Stayed tuned for the next Open Office Hours session!

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Open Office Hours Thursday, June 6 from 9-10PM EST http://thetradingedge.org/open-office-hours-thursday-june-6-from-9-10pm-est/ http://thetradingedge.org/open-office-hours-thursday-june-6-from-9-10pm-est/#disqus_thread Thu, 06 Jun 2019 01:17:04 +0000 http://thetradingedge.org/?p=3972

Quick announcement.

I’ll be running an Open office hours session Thursday, June the 6th from 9-10PM EST.

I’m looking forward to connecting and helping you navigate these current markets as well as answer any questions you may have.   

I will be going over the nightly review process, covering the major markets and stocks, and sharing some notable Price Action lessons.

Click here at 9PM to join the YouTube Live session. 

Don’t forget if you have any question or topics you’d like me to cover feel free drop me a line ahead to time.

See you Thursday!

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Trend change? http://thetradingedge.org/trend-change/ http://thetradingedge.org/trend-change/#disqus_thread Tue, 04 Jun 2019 13:09:04 +0000 http://thetradingedge.org/?p=3967 […]]]>

As I outlined in the Weekly Market Outlook video, the new week and month have brought some respite from the onslaught of selling we had in NA indices in May.

In order to see a real bottom formed, we want to see last week’s highs taken out which is still some distance away.

SPY – W


Bitcoin, on the other hand, is the exact opposite.
We had strong buying right into the end of May and now with the new month, the effervescence has somewhat faded as last week’s lows have been violated and now Bitcoin is seeing the first test of its uptrend since breaking out in April.

Bitcoin is still trading above its quarterly open so we now have some timeframe conflict with it trading below it’s weekly and monthly opens.

I’ll be looking for opportunities to buy more once we get sufficient corrective activity.

BTCUSD – W







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Weekly Market Outlook For June 3 – 7, 2019 http://thetradingedge.org/weekly-market-outlook-for-june-3-7-2019/ http://thetradingedge.org/weekly-market-outlook-for-june-3-7-2019/#disqus_thread Sun, 02 Jun 2019 01:00:46 +0000 http://thetradingedge.org/?p=3964 […]]]>

Here’s your weekly market analysis video to prepare for the coming week.

As we noted in last week’s video, with all the timescales aligned to the downside we can expect any surprises to likely be nasty ones.

This week continued and new tariff talks pushed the markets lower triggering some our setups and hitting some of our targets.

June the 3rd marks a new week and new month so buyers will have the opportunity to try to wrest control from the sellers. If buyers fail to hold control then watch out – especially if sellers can once again align all the timeframes to the downside.

In this week’s video, we look at the technical outlook for the VXXB SPY QQQ IWM DIA TLT BTCUSD TOTAL UKOIL EEM CBOE ETFC CRZO GS AMAT CSCO C and CRM for the week of June 3 – 7, 2019



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Fool me once, shame on you; Fool me twice, shame on me. http://thetradingedge.org/fool-me-once-shame-on-you-fool-me-twice-shame-on-me/ http://thetradingedge.org/fool-me-once-shame-on-you-fool-me-twice-shame-on-me/#disqus_thread Fri, 31 May 2019 02:43:34 +0000 http://thetradingedge.org/?p=3956 […]]]>

Markets continue to do what they do best and that is fool most people most of the time.

Tuesday’s AM rally quickly fizzled out and turned into a rout in the afternoon. Can you spot the inside bar reversal on the 4H chart?

This morning we gapped up only to give back all of those gains. Can you spot the inside bar reversal?

Now we’re setting up for a gap down tomorrow on Trump’s plan to tariff Mexico and you can expect that anyone who got long today will be on the pain-train.

Spot the pattern?

Fool me once, shame on you; Fool me twice, shame on me.

If you’ve been following the Weekly Market Outlook videos then you know that I’ve been expounding that we now are trading full time-frame alignment to the downside and that this is the environment to be staying on the short side.

I know knowing something and actually doing that thing can sometimes be at odds.

Just remember that under these market conditions usually, the surprises, especially the nasty ones come to the downside.

SPY – 4H

Here’s a final chart for good measure.
VXX set to go inside bar reversal to the upside on the weekly timescale.

VXX – W


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An Examination Of Major Market Reversals http://thetradingedge.org/an-examination-of-major-market-reversals/ http://thetradingedge.org/an-examination-of-major-market-reversals/#disqus_thread Mon, 27 May 2019 14:39:24 +0000 http://thetradingedge.org/?p=3950

At this past week’s Meetup, I shared my findings around a research project of mine where I examined some of history’s major market reversals. 

As the saying goes, history doesn’t repeat itself but it does rhyme.

Based on the research I carried out across 5 major bear markets although each market has its own distinct circumstances they also shared some common important lessons and takeaways.

I’ve received a lot of feedback about the perfect timing of the presentation so decided to share the presentation with all of our members and readers.

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Weekly Market Outlook For May 27 – 31, 2019 http://thetradingedge.org/weekly-market-outlook-for-may-27-31-2019/ http://thetradingedge.org/weekly-market-outlook-for-may-27-31-2019/#disqus_thread Sun, 26 May 2019 02:07:56 +0000 http://thetradingedge.org/?p=3947 […]]]>

Here’s your weekly market analysis video to prepare for the coming week.

The markets saw some heavy selling this past week where we saw a lot of volatility in the after-hours/pre-markets which led to a week full of gaps and a sharp sell-off in oil punctuating the downward price action.

Note all the NA indices are both now below their quarterly opens and set up the potential for more selling.

Shortened holiday week due to Memorial Day but trade talks, earnings, and a potential tech war will be the focus for the coming week.

In this week’s video, we look at the technical outlook for the VXXB SPY QQQ IWM DIA TLT BTCUSD TOTAL UKOIL EEM CBOE ETFC CRZO GS AMAT and a review of the sectors for the week of May 27 – 31, 2019.



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