The Trading Edge http://thetradingedge.org Exploring Markets and Trading Performance Wed, 17 Apr 2019 19:54:52 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=5.1.1 https://i1.wp.com/thetradingedge.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/cropped-THE_TRADINGE_EDGE.png?fit=32%2C32 The Trading Edge http://thetradingedge.org 32 32 65286121 A Tale Of Two Tapes http://thetradingedge.org/a-tale-of-two-tapes/ http://thetradingedge.org/a-tale-of-two-tapes/#disqus_thread Wed, 17 Apr 2019 19:54:42 +0000 http://thetradingedge.org/?p=3787 […]]]>

Don’t be fooled by the tape. As I posted yesterday the tape is dreadful.

There’s been heavy and continued selling in your former market leaders and the market has been going up on fumes this week.

We are grinding up with fewer and fewer stocks participating.

Look at the SPY chart below which has an overlay of the number of S&P100 stocks above their 50 day MA in blue. Notice the negative divergence.

The longer-term trend continues to be up but the risk is for a short term pullback. Stay diligent and watch to see if this week’s lows are at risk of being taken out for a possible larger pullback.

SPY vs S1FI – D

Also pay attention to DIA. Watch to see how we deal with the possible inside bar reversal on the daily and the outside inside pattern on the 4H tomorrow.

DIA
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Ugly Day http://thetradingedge.org/ugly-day/ http://thetradingedge.org/ugly-day/#disqus_thread Wed, 17 Apr 2019 02:21:10 +0000 http://thetradingedge.org/?p=3782 […]]]>

Don’t let the closing price fool you – today was an ugly day.

The indices gapped up and for the most part held their gains but the recent chop has a made mess out the charts of a lot of individual stocks.

The trend is still up but some technical damage has been done.

Time heals all wounds so the markets need to put in a good showing over the next day to begin to repair the technical damage and entice buyers back in.

IWM ends the day inside day and inside 4H.

Let’s see which way they break em tomorrow.


IWM – 4H
IWM – D


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Watch For Continuation http://thetradingedge.org/watch-for-continuation/ http://thetradingedge.org/watch-for-continuation/#disqus_thread Tue, 16 Apr 2019 13:12:07 +0000 http://thetradingedge.org/?p=3779

Yesterday all the indices and VXXB went outside inside on the 4H chart.

This morning we’re looking at gaps up across the board and a gap down on the VXXB.

Now that the pattern has resolved to the upside you want to be watching for continuation.

Or else if price starts retracing and coming back into the outside bar’s range watch out for the potential to test the other side of the range if buyers can’t defend the inside bar high.

Good trading!

SPY – 4H
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Seasonality and US Tax Day http://thetradingedge.org/seasonality-and-us-tax-day/ http://thetradingedge.org/seasonality-and-us-tax-day/#disqus_thread Mon, 15 Apr 2019 13:54:58 +0000 http://thetradingedge.org/?p=3773

VXXB starts the day taking out October’s lows as per the Weekly Outlook video.

Also interesting post over at the Quantifiable Edges blog about the effects of Tax Day and this week’s OPEX which plays into our current thesis for the week.

Good trading for the week!

2019-04-12
Quantifiable Edges Blog – The Market Loves Tax Day
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Weekly Market Outlook For April 15 – 19, 2019 http://thetradingedge.org/weekly-market-outlook-for-april-15-19-2019/ http://thetradingedge.org/weekly-market-outlook-for-april-15-19-2019/#disqus_thread Sun, 14 Apr 2019 01:22:58 +0000 http://thetradingedge.org/?p=3765

Here’s your weekly market analysis video to prepare for the coming week.

In this video, we look at the technical outlook for the VXXB SPY QQQ XLK IWM DIA TLT XLF GLD BTCUSD TOTAL UKOIL and KO for the week of April 15 – 19, 2019.

We discuss the trajectory of the markets to hit all-time highs, examine the price action of an inside week, and share some trade ideas.



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Nobody Said It Would Be Easy http://thetradingedge.org/nobody-said-it-would-be-easy/ http://thetradingedge.org/nobody-said-it-would-be-easy/#disqus_thread Fri, 12 Apr 2019 17:17:10 +0000 http://thetradingedge.org/?p=3756

This market is hilarious and the price action has been equally egregious to bulls and bears alike.

Here was this week’s game plan:
– Spend the majority of each session selling off and stop out all the longs.
– Then gap up and stop out all the shorts.
– Rinse and repeat.

Who said that getting to all-time highs would be easy?

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Let’s Do It Again Tomorrow Shall We http://thetradingedge.org/lets-do-it-again-tomorrow-shall-we/ http://thetradingedge.org/lets-do-it-again-tomorrow-shall-we/#disqus_thread Fri, 12 Apr 2019 02:33:58 +0000 http://thetradingedge.org/?p=3748 […]]]>

The markets went, well nowhere today.

If you only looked at the day’s close then you rightly saw that the indices didn’t move much, however, this belied the fact that it was a very odd day that saw all the indices including the VXXB, oil, gold, bonds, Asia trading in the red at various points in the trading day.

VXXB gapped down in the morning and grinded lower for the first 2 hours in a staccato fashion just to pop up, retrace the downside move, and stop everyone out in 15 mins. It was that kind of day.

VXXB – 5min



DIA was notably weak but buyers stepped up when they needed to defend the inside week to the tick before coming in with volume and closing the day right back where it started.

DIA

Going into Friday’s session TLT and DIA are both inside week so pay attention to those inside conditions.
The trend is still up – let’s see how the market responds to earnings from JPM and WFC in the pre-market.


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The Markets Have A Mind Of Their Own http://thetradingedge.org/the-markets-have-a-mind-of-their-own/ http://thetradingedge.org/the-markets-have-a-mind-of-their-own/#disqus_thread Thu, 11 Apr 2019 16:53:00 +0000 http://thetradingedge.org/?p=3743

Mid trading day and we have quite a cross-current of themes going on.

As such we’re seeing a lot of uncertainty which oddly has resulted in all the indices, VXXB , GLD, OIL, BTCUSD, EEM and the TLT all currently trading in the negative.

Some of these things you wouldn’t expect to see because of inverse correlations so keep focused on the broader macro trend and let the intraday and shorter term noise resolve itself.

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Markets Once Again Shake Out All The Weak Hands http://thetradingedge.org/markets-once-again-shake-out-all-the-weak-hands/ http://thetradingedge.org/markets-once-again-shake-out-all-the-weak-hands/#disqus_thread Thu, 11 Apr 2019 02:37:31 +0000 http://thetradingedge.org/?p=3739

Markets shook out the weak hands and shorter-term perspective traders before making all-time highs in a number of stocks including the Tech ETF we’ve been watching – XLK.

In this video, I review how VXXB resolved lower and the fantastic shorting opportunity today as well as show what price discovery looks like and why you keep getting stopped out when drawing horizontal support & resistance lines.

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Rally To All-Time Highs On Hold For Another Day http://thetradingedge.org/rally-to-all-time-highs-on-hold-for-another-day/ http://thetradingedge.org/rally-to-all-time-highs-on-hold-for-another-day/#disqus_thread Tue, 09 Apr 2019 20:05:02 +0000 http://thetradingedge.org/?p=3734

The rally to all-time highs fizzled out today as news about possible Trump tariffs to the EU nation states dominated the newsflow. Does this pullback put the broader rally into jeopardy?

In this video, we review the price action in the VXXB to see what short-term signals and pivots are in play and what to watch out for tomorrow on the QQQ’s ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC report.

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