“Eventually, the bull party will end but until then you have to dance.”
That’s a quote from last week’s video and this past week the US equities party showed no signs of slowing down as the SPY and QQQ’s logged fresh all-time highs just in time for the July 4th festivities.
In the meanwhile, the negative divergence between the SPY and its components that I’ve been detailing here got more headlines as the mainstream media has picked up on the divergence and started running about the potential doom and gloom.
So where do we go from here?
The path of least resistance remains higher however we are very extended at this juncture so a quick pullback would be in order in the very short term. That being said nothing has changed fundamentally with the current market narrative so even in the event of a pullback I’d expect buyers to once again step up to absorb the selling.
We have earnings season next week as well as the all-important CPI so, in my opinion, those are potentially market-moving catalysts we need to keep our eyes on. :eyes:
I’ve also been keeping a close eye on DXY and DXY broke to the upside this week only to pull back into last week’s range. If we break below this week’s lows, this will extremely positive for gold and gold stocks.
The crypto markets continue to base and buyers have been defending the 30k area in Bitcoin. So long as the recent lows hold there’s a slight upward bias but we are a long way from having bullish charts even though there are some pockets of crypto strength a la AXSUSDT.
Here are some of the ideas in this week’s video:
0:00 – Intro – earnings season and the CPI # come out next week
3:27 – Update on the negative divergence between SPY and the S&P100 stocks – the divergence is working itself out for now
6:00 – VXX/VIX futures analysis – yellow alert – possible short term extended to the downside
10:50 – Analysis of SPY/QQQ – all-time highs – Weekly momo up move and Bollinger band walks
16:43 – DIA/IWM analysis
22:30 – TSX – yellow alert – watch out for a potential break below last month’s lows
24:40 – EEM mired in no man’s land
25:35 – Bonds – understanding long duration and the beneficiaries – FAANG
27:44 – Review of FAANGM names
29:45 – DXY/Gold/Gold Miners – What for a potential weekly inside bar reversal in DXY
35:05 – Bitcoin – Long but a lot of work to do to fix the charts
39:05 – ETH/ Crypto Total market cap / SHITPERP
45:12 – Trading clean charts like Axis Infinity – AXSUSDT