commentary

May 7, 2019
Cracks appearing

Cracks appearing

Although media outlets are still cheering yesterday’s rally we are starting to see some cracks appearing in the rally we’ve had since late December 2018. The weekly chart below shows the SPY vs. the # of S&P 100 stocks currently above their 50 day MA in blue. As you can see we are seeing a negative divergence between the SPY hitting all-time highs and the actual # of stocks participating in the rally. Also notable to watch is EEM. Yesterday we broke below last month’s lows of 43.35. The buyers couldn’t reclaim the level and this morning and we are […]
March 12, 2019
What Are Bonds Telling Us?

What Are Bonds Telling Us?

As highlighted in this past week’s Outlook Video, TLT (the long bond ETF) was setting up as an inside week which triggered today after trading above last week’s highs. The immediate next pivot is 122.54. As North American indices and bonds grind higher, what is TLT signaling here? Maybe nothing. If you ever wondered about the significance between the correlation between stocks and bonds then check out this piece from Pimco: https://www.pimco.ca/en-ca/insights/viewpoints/does-the-stock-bond-correlation-really-matter/ Investors should care less about how the returns of assets deviate from their trends and more about the trends themselves – particularly when we are considering how bonds […]
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