trading

May 19, 2019

Weekly Market Outlook For May 20 – 24, 2019

Here’s your weekly market analysis video to prepare for the coming week. The markets continued to be buttressed by headlines this week as the NA indices closed the week green however IWM and DIA are both now trading below their quarterly opens and set up the potential for more selling. Trade talks, the FOMC meeting, and earnings will be the focus for the coming week. In this week’s video, we look at the technical outlook for the VXXB SPY QQQ IWM DIA TLT BTCUSD TOTAL UKOIL EEM PLAY CBOE GDDY MU AMD DE and a review of the sectors for […]
May 17, 2019
Stop putting your stops here

Stop putting your stops here

This past Wednesday I did an Open Office Hours session on YouTube Live and one of the topics I spoke about was the nature of outside bars and why setting your stop at the highs or lows of outside bars is such a terrible idea. You can find countless examples across all timeframes but here’s a good example that played out on the 4H chart on TIF. Today TIF goes inside bar reversal and down taking out all the outside bar lows. If you’re setting your stops under/above outside bars do yourself a favor and watch this past week’s video. […]
May 16, 2019

Open Office Hours Recording

Last night I held an impromptu Open Office Hours session on Youtube Live where I took live questions, reviewed some common questions I get from the blog and videos, discussed the recent crypto trades, and shared a part of my nightly review process. Thanks to all who saw the late email and showed up. In case you missed it here’s the recording. I’m going to start holding Open Office Hours more regularly so stay tuned. Oh yeah, next time I promise I’ll give a little more of a heads up. 😉
May 15, 2019
Are You Enjoying The Trade War?

Are You Enjoying The Trade War?

The markets have had a tumultuous few days with investors and traders transfixed to each headline coming out of China and the White House. Even the recent rise in cryptos have been attributed to Chinese traders rushing to get their Yuans denominated into BTC. Riddle me this geniuses – Bitcoin was trading at $4210 just over 2 months ago when we first recommended buying it, why weren’t those same Chinese traders buying it then for a ~$4000 premium? The reason is that at this point in the Bitcoin cycle, it’s simply trend/herd following and momentum strategies getting into the crypto […]
May 13, 2019

Short With Impunity

In case you missed it, the day started off bad and only got worst for the bulls. This was the worst case scenario as the gap down on the indices this morning not only trapped all of the longs who bought Friday’s rally but also handily turned the quarterly charts red on all the indices. This means all the indices are now trading below their 3-month opens and we have full-time frame alignment on all the major timeframes to the downside. So long as price remains in this condition the bias needs to be short and any rips should be […]
May 12, 2019

Conquering False Trading Expectations

Whether you trade at home or in an office.  Trading by its very nature can be a very solitary endeavor.  As socially wired creatures we all have a deep desire to be seen and heard.   As such many traders gravitate towards trading websites and social media platforms to share trade ideas, commentary, and seek validation. While there are benefits to social media like the sense of community and belonging, there is also a darker side that goes beyond the mere endless digital distractions. Anyone who knows me knows that I am no fan of social media prescribing more towards […]
May 11, 2019

Weekly Market Outlook For May 13 – 17, 2019

Here’s your weekly market analysis video to prepare for the coming week. In case you missed it the markets were at the mercy of the ongoing headlines and tweets surrounding the US and China trade talks and the structural cracks we have been talking about in the videos finally began to show themselves. Trade talks and earnings continue to be the area of focus for the coming week.
May 7, 2019
Cracks appearing

Cracks appearing

Although media outlets are still cheering yesterday’s rally we are starting to see some cracks appearing in the rally we’ve had since late December 2018. The weekly chart below shows the SPY vs. the # of S&P 100 stocks currently above their 50 day MA in blue. As you can see we are seeing a negative divergence between the SPY hitting all-time highs and the actual # of stocks participating in the rally. Also notable to watch is EEM. Yesterday we broke below last month’s lows of 43.35. The buyers couldn’t reclaim the level and this morning and we are […]
May 6, 2019
Safe trading

Safe trading

Looks like we’re going to have an interesting start to the week. Tariff talks are back in play and VXX is currently gapping up 8%+. VXX closed the previously unfilled gap at 28.05. Next level to watch out for is the quarterly open at 28.97 and another unfilled gap at 30.19 if the bears get very aggressive. Watch the DIA here. DIS has broken below the previous week’s lows and will start the week trading below the quarterly open. Buyers will need to defend here and reclaim last week’s lows otherwise we will see lower prices. I will get stopped […]
May 4, 2019

Weekly Market Outlook For May 6 – 10, 2019

Here’s your weekly market analysis video to prepare for the coming week. Congratulations SPY holders – we finally got those all-time highs we’ve been blogging about since the beginning of the Weekly Market Outlook video series! The indices closed out another week on a strong note hitting all-time highs early in the week only the give it back then reclaim the highs into the close of Friday. Earnings continue to be the area of focus for the coming week as well as this week’s oil #. In this week’s video, we look at the technical outlook for the VXXB SPY […]
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