Weekly Perspectives – 07/27-07/31

 

Weekly Commentary –
 

This week buyers stepped in at the 78% retracement and now we have a potential higher high setting up a triangle formation.

As detailed here last week we had an unfilled gap on the VXX at 17.70 which was filled first thing in the week followed by filling the other previously unfilled downside gap at 16.84 the next day.

At this point we have 2 possible scenarios.

  1. It’s slightly more probable that we break to the upside to hit all time highs.
  2. Or we break to the downside and with 201.92 being the first downside target.
 

As you can see from the VIX (the Volatility index) chart below, with the VIX at these depressed levels, history tell us that this is ultimately an environment which is favorable for equities.
Eventually volatility will return but there are no signs of that yet.

Here’s an update on our sector rotation watch.

This week all the sectors ended positive with the exception of Energy.

Notably –

  • Strong uptrend
    • Con. Discretionary and Con. Staples closing near all time high
    • Healthcare,  Financials and Technology – all pulling back but still in an uptrend
  • Change of trend
    • Utilities – broke out of a down trend
  • Still in a downtrend – Builders, Industrials, and Energy
    • Builders and Industrials had a great week for still in an downtrend overall.
    • Energy continues to be weak

The major sectors are posted here on Finviz for your viewing pleasure –

http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&ft=4&t=XLF,XLY,XLK,XLB,XLI,XLE,XLU,XLV,XLP

Weekly Perspectives – 07/27-07/31

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