Weekly Perspectives: Where Do You Think We Are In The Market Cycle?

Weekly Market Outlook For March 30 – April 3 – A New Bull Market?
March 29, 2020
Weekly Market Outlook For April 6-10 – The Calm Before The Storm
April 4, 2020
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Hi traders,

Here is your weekly newsletter — perspectives on trading and financial markets.

Click here for last week’s edition.


Where Do You Think We Are In The Market Cycle?

 Source: Greater Fool / BMO Financial Group


Trusting “Stress Testing”

“Indeed, our bodies discover probabilities in a very sophisticated manner and assess risks much better than our intellects do. To take one example, risk management professionals look in the past for information on the so-called worst-case scenario and use it to estimate future risks—this method is called “stress testing.”

They take the worst historical recession, the worst war, the worst historical move in interest rates, or the worst point in unemployment as an exact estimate for the worst future outcome. But they never notice the following inconsistency: this so-called worst-case event, when it happened, exceeded the worst case at the time.” — Nassim Taleb in Antifragile: Things that Gain From Disorder    


A New Bull Market? 

This past week the markets ripped to the upside even after Thursday brought news of the worst week for new US jobless claims in history.

The S&P 500 has logged its best three-day return since 1933. 
Interestingly only two such three-day periods have seen better returns, and both were during the Great Depression.

Taking a page out of the crisis management playbook of 2008-2009 the central banks and the governments of the world have given the markets all it wants and thrown in the kitchen sink for good measure.

So the question is will it be enough? And after such a historic rally are we in a new bull market? 
Or are we having a dead cat bounce to be followed by a dreaded test of the recent lows?

With only 2 trading days left in the month of March and Q1, we are now at an important inflection point so, in this week’s video, I review how far this recent sell-off has taken us and what to look for signs of continued upside or a resumption to the downside.

Now watch this week’s Weekly Outlook video to see the setups and levels we’ll be watching as well as the technical outlook for the VXX SPY QQQ IWM DIA EEM TSX TLT GLD MGC BTCUSD EEM and more for the week of Weekly Market Outlook For – March 30 – April 3, 2020.


How Long Does It Take To Recover From A Collapse?

Source: Barry Ritholtz / Bloomberg Data


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Weekly Perspectives: Where Do You Think We Are In The Market Cycle?

by editor time to read: 2 min